The US stock market is facing a major test with Technology Earnings Reports, but good news is no longer able to lift the market.
Research indicates that in the current macro environment, companies with better-than-expected performance see an average increase of only 50 basis points the next day (T+1), significantly lower than the historical average of 101 basis points. Meanwhile, companies that do not meet expectations experience a drop of 247 basis points, which is more severe than the historical average decline of 206 basis points.
The USD has slightly increased, benefiting from the de-escalation of trade frictions and alleviated concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.
The US dollar showed a mild upward trend at the beginning of this week, supported by market expectations of easing global trade tensions and reduced risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve. Last week, President Trump announced progress in trade negotiations with Japan and clearly stated there was no intention to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.
Just last week, the US stock market formed the strongest Call pattern.
If within 10 days, the proportion of rising Stocks on the NYSE exceeds 61.5% from less than 40%, it triggers a ZBT signal, which often indicates that the market has rapidly shifted from extreme overselling to extreme overbuying. According to Bank of America analysis, since 1939, every time a ZBT signal appeared, the S&P 500 Index has risen in the following 130 and 190 trading days, with average gains of 17.1% and 19.6% respectively.
As the earnings reports season comes to a close, can the profit growth of technology giants keep up with the expansion of their valuations?
This week, Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon will report quarterly results in a market affected by concerns over economic recession caused by trade wars and tariffs.
Be cautious during the Earnings Reports season! Goldman Sachs is urgently applying the brakes: AI support cannot hide the shrinking corporate wallets.
Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist warns: next week, 41% of the S&P 500 constituents will disclose their earnings, and corporate investment decisions may hit the brakes due to increasing policy uncertainty.
Economic officials of "Trump 1.0" state that the impact of tariffs will become apparent nationwide by the end of next month, with the poorest suffering the most.
The former director of the White House National Economic Council stated that the "soft data" reflecting future expectations is weakening; before commodity prices rise due to tariffs, those with lower income levels or economic strength will use 100% of their salaries to purchase commodities, while the wealthy will save a higher proportion of their income, with the former being more severely impacted.
Goldman Sachs warns behind the technology stock frenzy: the rise of U.S. stocks cannot mask the dual concerns of valuation and policy.
The US stock market has surged significantly, driven by the familiar rise of Large Cap Technology stocks. However, Goldman Sachs states that investors should prepare for ongoing volatility, as the market is right in the middle of the 2025 Trade Range.
"Price increases" have started! On Amazon, nearly a thousand Commodities have an average price increase of 29%, while the average price increase for the top 100 products on Shein is 51%.
Since April 9, there have been 930 price increases on the Amazon platform, with an average increase of 29%; most price increases for Shein in the USA occurred on Fridays, with the top 100 beauty and health products having an average price increase of 51%, and some categories seeing price surges of up to 377%. On Monday, US stock Futures opened lower, as the market worried that the wave of price increases would lead to a dual blow of shrinking Consumer demand and rising inflation pressure.
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Cross-border e-commerce platforms have collectively raised prices in the United States.
Companies are being forced to pass costs onto consumers.
Wall Street Bets On Bulls, Not Tariffs, As Rare 'Breadth Thrust' Lifts Stocks
JPMorgan survey: The market widely predicts that the USA will fall into stagflation, and the dollar continues to weaken.
The survey released by JPMorgan on Friday shows that the market generally believes that the risk of stagflation in the USA over the next year is much higher than the risk of recession, while the most Bullish asset class for 2025 is Cash; Most respondents believe that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the most negatively impactful policy on the USA.
U.S. stocks and the dollar have stopped falling and rebounded, yet Bank of America warns that investors should Sell at high points as the conditions for sustained growth are not present.
Bank of America strategists have stated that investors should consider selling on rallies in the US dollar and warned that the current conditions do not support a sustained increase.
Americans Are Downbeat on the Economy. They Keep Spending Anyway. -- WSJ
U.S. stocks triggered a rare technical Call signal, bullish in the medium term but short-term fluctuations are inevitable.
The US stock market wrapped up the week with a strong performance, but what really boosted investors' sentiment was a rare technical Call signal triggered during Thursday's trading.
Nasdaq Climbs More Than 1% as Stocks Finish Strong Week -- WSJ
U.S. Stocks Post Weekly Gains on Trade Hopes -- Market Talk