When will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? Governor Waller has already written the script: take action when the unemployment rate soars.
① Federal Reserve Board member Waller stated that if the Trump administration reinstates high tariffs, companies may increase layoffs, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate, and he would support a rate cut by the Federal Reserve; ② Waller believes that tariffs will have little impact on the economy before July, and that the inflation shock may be temporary, but could cause the unemployment rate to rise rapidly afterwards.
US Dollar's Slide Raising Red Flags for Corporate Earnings
Fed's Waller Says Policymakers Can 'Look Through' One-Time Price Increases
Central U.S. Manufacturing Contracts Again as Tariffs Prompt Uncertainty -- Kansas City Fed
The signal for interest rate cuts is still pending! Tariffs have not yet affected the USA labor market, and initial unemployment claims remain stable at a low level.
As of the week ending April 19, the number of unemployment benefit claims in the USA increased by 6,000, reaching 0.222 million, in line with expectations.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut remains unresolved, and the battle to defend the USD level of 99 has already begun.
On Thursday (April 24) during the North American session, the USD fell, trading below 99.50, a decline of over 0.50%, mainly influenced by the latest remarks from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin regarding Global tariff negotiations. At the same time, the data on USA durable Orders showed a mixed picture, reigniting market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Fundamental Analysis revealed that the USA durable Orders data caught the market by surprise. In March, the total durable Orders increased by 10.4% month-on-month, far exceeding the expected 2.0% and the previous value of 0.8% (revised to 0.9%). However, excluding Autos and Transportation Equipment, core durable Orders.
U.S. Economic Growth Slips Back Below Average -- Chicago Fed
Dollar Could Benefit From Investor Rebalancing at Month-End -- Market Talk
Goldman's Chief Economist Says the Dollar Has Further to Fall. Here's Why.
Fed's Independence Could 'Disappear In A Week,' Says Economist Ken Rogoff, As Trump Thinks He's 'Smarter Than The Central Bankers' Amid Ongoing Feud With Jerome Powell
Dollar Has Further to Fall, Says Goldman Sachs Chief Economist
FX Traders Seen Clinging to Bearish Dollar Bets Despite Rebound
Is there a good opportunity to seize after the "ceiling" of 3500 USD? The Gold correction verifies its strong nature.
On Thursday (April 24), spot Gold showed signs of recovery, with prices stabilizing above $3,300. This trend was influenced by USA Treasury Secretary Scott Bencet's statements on international economic and trade relations, as well as market bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut. Fundamental Analysis Secretary Bencet stated on Wednesday that the USA would not unilaterally reduce tariffs on imports from certain economies and emphasized that high tariffs need to be "mutually reduced" to promote dialogue. This statement dampened market expectations for a quick breakthrough in trade negotiations. According to Reuters, Bencet clearly denied that the White House was considering making unilateral tariff cuts on certain economy imports.
The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy and expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are putting pressure on the dollar. After a significant rebound against the Swiss franc, the dollar may continue to decline.
The USD is facing double pressure from trade policy and interest rate cut expectations, continuing its decline against the Swiss Franc in early trading on Thursday, currently trading below 0.8300, with a drop of about 0.25%. The rebound in the previous two days was unable to sustain due to ongoing market doubts regarding President Trump's tariff policies, alongside expectations that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its easing policies. These two factors have dampened the sentiment for the USD, keeping the USD index (DXY) fluctuating at near historic low levels, thus limiting the upward potential of USD/CHF. On Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen stated that the current global trade uncertainties are difficult to resolve quickly in the short term, but in the medium to long term...
Dollar Turns Lower After Brief Recovery -- Market Talk
The Forex market is experiencing a "counteroffensive moment" of the dollar, while the bears are still holding onto Put positions.
The recent rise of the dollar has put pressure on the markets betting on a weaker dollar, catching some market participants off guard.
The long-term bear market for the US dollar has arrived! Deutsche Bank: This will have a profound impact on the Global economy and capital flows.
Deutsche Bank believes that the dollar bull market has ended and a bear market has begun. The core reasons include a decrease in the global willingness to finance the U.S. twin deficits, a peak in the holdings of U.S. Assets, and a tendency among many countries to promote growth through domestic fiscal measures. The EUR/USD Exchange Rates are expected to reach 1.15 by the end of 2025, gradually approaching 1.30 thereafter.
Why Gold Became the Safe Haven of Choice as U.S. Treasurys and Dollar Sold off
Is Recession 'Inevitable'? Markets Say Don't Be so Sure.
Flipping out faster than flipping a book? Trump once again blasts Powell: Not lowering interest rates is a mistake!
① The President of the USA, Trump, criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell again on Wednesday, accusing him of keeping interest rates too high and expressing that he might give him a call. ② Trump has recently criticized Powell multiple times and has not ruled out the possibility of firing Powell, but reportedly the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce advised him against it.