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philip shaffer : I was reading an article the other day saying that for oil companies to drill and produce more oil needs to be in mid 70s. when it was getting down in low 60s was getting all notification saying US lost this many oil rigs this week . I think mid to low 60s is all we see. the 20% inflation we seen since 2018 and oil being low 50 or high 40s would put oil in low 60s now. i do think we go into a deflationary time in a couple yrs it might go down to high 40s again then. I just don't think oil in 40s and oil companies shut rigs down goes hand in hand with trumps drill baby drill agenda in in next yr or 2 . maybe I'm missing something.
10baggerbamm OP philip shaffer : well the one thing you're not taking into consideration are the sanctions that Biden placed on Putin. 180 vessels are dry docked 143 oil tankers that can't leave Russia, they cannot transport oil around the world. when there is peace between Ukraine and Russia.. oil will drop $3-4 within a very short period of time because it shot up on the sanctions the same amount. when there is a deal with Iran which ultimately means Israel Hamas you will have stability in the Middle East that's good for at least $2 in oil prices on a global basis.
so you don't need to have an actual increase in output of oil on federal lands or in the oceans or Anwar Alaska. we have geopolitical events that will drop the price about $5 to $6 very quickly.
it's also important to understand president Trump does not care about the profitability of any company or any industry.
don't understand we had this excitement when he was coming into office that he's a business friendly president that his administration is going to promote business development that he's going to reduce regulations.
yeah 7 trillion supposedly is the dollar amount that he is saying is recently as yesterday will be invested in the United States over the next decade, and that could mean a lot of cancellations if Republicans are not in office in 4 years by the way...
but the fact of the matter is President Trump fucked in video he fucked Jensen and he fucked every shareholder he basically banned Nvidia from selling gpus into China Nvidia lost 14% of their top line revenue in a millisecond gone Nvidia took a 5.5 billion dollar charge against earnings instantly. president Trump had Jensen at Mar-A-Lago two weeks ago Friday for dinner and everybody was all excited about what's coming nvidia's way an exemption to tariffs because Nvidia is the backbone of Starbase the $500 billion dollar data center project that was announced the first week of President Trump inauguration.
so if president Trump will burn in video and that's what he did plain and simple do you think president Trump really cares about the profitability of oil companies? I don't think he gives a rat's ass I think he has an agenda and the Secretary of Commerce Howard lucknick who owns canter Fitzgerald made it abundantly clear 2 months ago.. if you were invested in a company in the stocks going down because of President Trump's policies or actions too bad.. president Trump could give a shit about retail investors he could give a shit about the profitability of oil companies he wants the price of oil to go down he's going to have the price of oil go down.
and if certain companies are hurt along the way because they're operating at a loss but you know what they have to continue producing because you need cash flow as a business to survive you can't cease operations.. president Trump could care less about oil needing to be at $65 or 67 for shale companies to make money or deep oil drillers to make money it's irrelevant he wants the price to go down by 50% within 12 months of his inauguration those were his words.
philip shaffer : yea I get it just thought they won't produce as much if oil isn't high enough and that went against his agenda. then I read they are suppose to refill the oil reserve also in May if it doesn't get pushed back. which is 20billion that will push price higher. I was reading The US also produce 80% of our own need almost enough to not need any imports and said that didn't know why US citizens didn't receive some type of discount of fuel prices then thought maybe that he would just get citizens a discount at the pump to keep his promise of lower gas prices while oil was up high enough to where companies can produce more to fulfill our needs and also sell as income to other countries. idk tho I've just started digging in oil so been doing alot of reading to try and figure out if 60 was bottom for awhile since it hasn't been this low since 2021.
10baggerbamm OP philip shaffer : well it dropped a 55 during this recent turmoil and I think you're going to see oil in the mid to low 50s again it doesn't need to be sustained there it can be a combination of Russia Ukraine Iran peace in the Middle East Trump ramping up oil production he'll make a big deal about it just like he we can half ago was in Pennsylvania talking about canceling biden's coal destruction plans and opening up mines again in Pennsylvania so it's not just drill baby drill with oil it's a whole energy Outlook it's natural gas it's clean coal it's the whole Gambit. so if you increase coal production if you increase natural gas the actual demand for oil goes down and if that happens then price falls..
so I think you need to focus on the big picture and not get caught up on what a CEO of an oil company says because Trump doesn't care about any individual CEO he proved that with Jensen of Nvidia.
Trump wants oil prices lower for one reason it drives GDP higher
everything runs on oil the ships that transport goods the railroad cars that move goods the 18 wheelers that move goods the vans that move it to the last leg like Amazon to your house. when you reduce oil the cost of manufacturing the cost of delivery the cost of fulfillment goes down when you the consumer fills up once a week and right now you're spending $70 and it goes down to $60 that's $520 a year that you're going to be able to spend into the economy that gets taxed that the government collects taxes on. the more manufacturing that's done in the United States the more oil that is refined in the United States that money when you fill up at the pump stays in the United States and it cycles around multiple times before it winds up in an account like a savings account and doesn't get spent that's called velocity so every time that dollar is spent taxes are generated the government collects GDP accelerates
this is the big picture that you have to focus on don't get derailed from what a CEO says within North Dakota or up in British Columbia where they need the price per barrel to be to make money that's irrelevant
ASteffie : I'm sitting in. I don't want to exit. All the reasons you gave, great chance oil drops. Now, as far as the market aging you, I can tell. It's lovely that you share all your exasperation and stress with us. However, you know and I know that you need to be more zen. For your![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
s sake.
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