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When will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? Governor Waller has already written the script: take action when the unemployment rate soars.
① Federal Reserve Board member Waller stated that if the Trump administration reinstates high tariffs, companies may increase layoffs, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate, and he would support a rate cut by the Federal Reserve; ② Waller believes that tariffs will have little impact on the economy before July, and that the inflation shock may be temporary, but could cause the unemployment rate to rise rapidly afterwards.
US Dollar's Slide Raising Red Flags for Corporate Earnings
Fed's Waller Says Policymakers Can 'Look Through' One-Time Price Increases
Central U.S. Manufacturing Contracts Again as Tariffs Prompt Uncertainty -- Kansas City Fed
The signal for interest rate cuts is still pending! Tariffs have not yet affected the USA labor market, and initial unemployment claims remain stable at a low level.
As of the week ending April 19, the number of unemployment benefit claims in the USA increased by 6,000, reaching 0.222 million, in line with expectations.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut remains unresolved, and the battle to defend the USD level of 99 has already begun.
On Thursday (April 24) during the North American session, the USD fell, trading below 99.50, a decline of over 0.50%, mainly influenced by the latest remarks from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin regarding Global tariff negotiations. At the same time, the data on USA durable Orders showed a mixed picture, reigniting market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Fundamental Analysis revealed that the USA durable Orders data caught the market by surprise. In March, the total durable Orders increased by 10.4% month-on-month, far exceeding the expected 2.0% and the previous value of 0.8% (revised to 0.9%). However, excluding Autos and Transportation Equipment, core durable Orders.
