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Housing Market Stalls as Homeowners Struggle to Sell
Citi Says 'Good Time' to Accumulate Chinese Property Stocks
[Brokerage Focus] CITIC SEC believes that the current period is a good policy window for promoting the sale of existing homes.
CITIC SEC stated that the existence of the pre-sale system was originally intended to increase supply and rapidly improve residents' living conditions, which objectively accelerated developers' turnover and helped developers to scale up. Currently, the supply and demand relationship in the Real Estate market has fundamentally changed, and the market foundation for the survival of the pre-sale system (supply not meeting demand) no longer exists. Developers pursuing fast turnover have fallen into a prisoner's dilemma— the industry overall needs to control supply, but if a single developer controls their own supply speed, other companies may achieve a higher ROE due to faster turnover. Once all companies pursue fast turnover, the subjective desire to enhance ROE.
Zhongzhizhi Research Institute: In the first quarter of 2025, the average rent for residences in 50 cities has decreased by a cumulative 0.44%.
The Finger Research Institute published an article stating that in the first quarter of 2025, the average rent for Residences in key cities will see a slight cumulative decline.
The Central Finger Research Institute: In March, the average price of second-hand Residences in 100 cities decreased by 0.59% month-on-month, and the cumulative decline in the first quarter narrowed on a month-on-month basis.
In March, the second-hand housing market in key cities remained highly active, with the average price of second-hand Residences in 100 cities dropping by 0.59% month-on-month.
In April, the LPR remained unchanged. Industry insiders expect that the policy interest rate cuts in the second quarter will lead to a reduction in the LRR, and there is room for a decrease in mortgage rates within the year.
① Considering the changes in the external economic and trade environment, as well as the trends in the domestic Real Estate market and prices, industry insiders believe that the timing for "selective reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates" in the second quarter has matured, with the possibility of it occurring as early as April. ② The industry determines that the current interest rate cut may reach 30 basis points, similar to the total reduction for the previous year. This indicates that the next substantial policy-driven interest rate cuts will lead to a decrease in the LPR Quote, which in turn will guide the reduction of loan interest rates for businesses and households.
Venture118 : Nothing concrete, I’m not surprised…. Continue like tis may go back to last low

天府山庄 : China to almost double support for unfinished housing projects to $737 billion
【官方定调,房地产终于触底】https://www.backchina.com/news/2024/10/18/939490.html
103725026 : What happened?
103725026 : Oh, no movement.